 |
| Buhari at Chatham House on Thursday |
Read the speech below...
Permit me to start by thanking Chatham House for the invitation to talk about this important topic at this crucial time. When speaking about Nigeria overseas, I normally prefer to be my country's public relations and marketing officer, extolling her virtues and hoping to attract investments and tourists. But as we all know, Nigeria is now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I do so only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom that we are quite aware of our shortcomings and are doing our best to address them.
The 2015 general election in Nigeria is
generating a lot of interests within and outside the country. This is
understandable. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and largest
economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has great implications
beyond the democratic project and beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global
interest in Nigeria's landmark election is not misplaced at all and
indeed should be commended; for this is an election that has serious
import for the world. I urge the international community to continue to
focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given increasing global
linkages, it is in our collective interests that the postponed elections
should hold on the rescheduled dates; that they should be free and
fair; that their outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that
any form of extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and
will not be tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in
1989, the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the collapse of communism and
the end of the Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most
preferred system of government across the globe. That global transition
has been aptly captured as the triumph of democracy and the 'most
pre-eminent political idea of our time.' On a personal note, the phased
end of the USSR was a turning point for me. It convinced me that change
can be brought about without firing a single shot.
As you all know, I had been a military
head of state in Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened because we
were unhappy with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to
arrest the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and
popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we
fought our way to power. But the global triumph of democracy has shown
that another and a preferable path to change is possible. It is an
important lesson I have carried with me since, and a lesson that is not
lost on the African continent.
In the last two decades, democracy has
grown strong roots in Africa. Elections, once so rare, are now so
commonplace. As at the time I was a military head of state between 1983
and 1985, only four African countries held regular multi-party
elections. But the number of electoral democracies in Africa, according
to Freedom House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and
to 24 in 2005/2006. According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted multi-party elections between
1990 and 2002.
The newspaper also reported that between
2000 and 2002, ruling parties in four African countries (Senegal,
Mauritius, Ghana and Mali) peacefully handed over power to victorious
opposition parties. In addition, the proportion of African countries
categorized as not free by Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to
35% in 2003. Without doubt, Africa has been part of the current global
wave of democratisation.
But the growth of democracy on the
continent has been uneven. According to Freedom House, the number of
electoral democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in
2011/2012; while the percentage of countries categorised as 'not free'
assuming for the sake of argument that we accept their definition of
"free" increased from 35% in 2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been
some reversals at different times in Burkina Faso, Central African
Republic, Cote D'Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali,
Madagascar, Mauritania and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of
democracy in Africa as either half full or half empty.
While you can't have representative
democracy without elections, it is equally important to look at the
quality of the elections and to remember that mere elections do not
democracy make. It is globally agreed that democracy is not an event,
but a journey. And that the destination of that journey is democratic
consolidation – that state where democracy has become so rooted and so
routine and widely accepted by all actors.
With this important destination in mind,
it is clear that though many African countries now hold regular
elections, very few of them have consolidated the practice of democracy.
It is important to also state at this point that just as with
elections, a consolidated democracy cannot be an end by itself. I will
argue that it is not enough to hold a series of elections or even to
peacefully alternate power among parties.
It is much more important that the
promise of democracy goes beyond just allowing people to freely choose
their leaders. It is much more important that democracy should deliver
on the promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of lives and
property, of transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good
governance and of shared prosperity. It is very important that the
promise embedded in the concept of democracy, the promise of a better
life for the generality of the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As
you all know, Nigeria's fourth republic is in its 16th year and this
general election will be the fifth in a row. This is a major sign of
progress for us, given that our first republic lasted five years and
three months, the second republic ended after four years and two months
and the third republic was a still-birth. However, longevity is not the
only reason why everyone is so interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is
that for the very first time since transition to civil rule in 1999,
the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest
opposition so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC). We
once had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition. Now
Nigeria is transitioning from a dominant party system to a competitive
electoral polity, which is a major marker on the road to democratic
consolidation. As you know, peaceful alternation of power through
competitive elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and
Mauritius in recent times. The prospects of democratic consolidation in
Africa will be further brightened when that eventually happens in
Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why
Nigerians and the whole world are intensely focussed on this year's
elections, chief of which is that the elections are holding in the
shadow of huge security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa's
most populous country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is a
genuine cause for worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart from the
civil war era, at no other time in our history has Nigeria been this
insecure.
Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the
terrorism map, killing more than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing
millions internally and externally, and at a time holding on to portions
of our territory the size of Belgium. What has been consistently
lacking is the required leadership in our battle against insurgency. I,
as a retired general and a former head of state, have always known about
our soldiers: they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and
always ready to do their duty in the service of our country.
You all can bear witness to the gallant
role of our military in Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra
Leone, Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in
several parts of the world. But in the matter of this insurgency, our
soldiers have neither received the necessary support nor the required
incentives to tackle this problem. The government has also failed in any
effort towards a multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a
situation in which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to
come to our rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected
president, the world will have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has
had to recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in
West Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost to
the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our
soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern
arms and ammunitions to work with, we will improve intelligence
gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram's financial and
equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root
causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan promoting
infrastructural development, job creation, agriculture and industry in
the affected areas. We will always act on time and not allow problems to
irresponsibly fester, and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from
the front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and
international efforts to combat terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of
oil has brought our economic and social stress into full relief. After
the rebasing exercise in April 2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as
Africa's largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510 billion and our
economy rated 26th in the world. Also on the bright side, inflation has
been kept at single digit for a while and our economy has grown at an
average of 7% for about a decade.
But it is more of paper growth, a growth
that, on account of mismanagement, profligacy and corruption, has not
translated to human development or shared prosperity. A development
economist once said three questions should be asked about a country's
development: one, what is happening to poverty? Two, what is happening
to unemployment? And three, what is happening to inequality?
The answers to these questions in
Nigeria show that the current administration has created two economies
in one country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few who
have so much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy
for the many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by official figures, 33.1% of
Nigerians live in extreme poverty. That's at almost 60 million, almost
the population of the United Kingdom. There is also the unemployment
crisis simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the slightest
stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60% of
our youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of
inequalities in the world.
With all these, it is not surprising
that our performance on most governance and development indicators (like
Mo Ibrahim Index on African Governance and UNDP's Human Development
Index.) are unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which accounts
for more than 70% of government revenues, and lack of savings from more
than a decade of oil boom, the poor will be disproportionately
impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a
good place to start the repositioning of Nigeria's economy is to swiftly
tackle two ills that have ballooned under the present administration:
waste and corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the
way, with the force of personal example.
On corruption, there will be no
confusion as to where I stand. Corruption will have no place and the
corrupt will not be appointed into my administration. First and
foremost, we will plug the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue
producing entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise will have one set
of books only. Their revenues will be publicly disclosed and regularly
audited. The institutions of state dedicated to fighting corruption will
be given independence and prosecutorial authority without political
interference.
But I must emphasise that any war waged
on corruption should not be misconstrued as settling old scores or a
witch-hunt. I'm running for President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and
not adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use
savings that arise from blocking these leakages and the proceeds
recovered from corruption to fund our party's social investments
programmes in education, health, and safety nets such as free school
meals for children, emergency public works for unemployed youth and
pensions for the elderly.
As a progressive party, we must reform
our political economy to unleash the pent-up ingenuity and productivity
of the Nigerian people thus freeing them from the curse of poverty. We
will run a private sector-led economy but maintain an active role for
government through strong regulatory oversight and deliberate
interventions and incentives to diversify the base of our economy,
strengthen productive sectors, improve the productive capacities of our
people and create jobs for our teeming youths.
In short, we will run a functional
economy driven by a worldview that sees growth not as an end by itself,
but as a tool to create a society that works for all, rich and poor
alike. On March 28,
Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the continuity of failure
or to elect progressive change. I believe the people will choose wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic
importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of democratic consolidation in
Africa. But as a starting point we need to get this critical election
right by ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving those who want to
scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy. That way,
we will all see democracy and democratic consolidation as tools for
solving pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in
themselves.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria's Transition
Permit me to close this discussion on a
personal note. I have heard and read references to me as a former
dictator in many respected British newspapers including the well
regarded Economist. Let me say without sounding defensive that
dictatorship goes with military rule, though some might be less
dictatorial than others. I take responsibility for whatever happened
under my watch.
I cannot change the past. But I can
change the present and the future. So before you is a former military
ruler and a converted democrat who is ready to operate under democratic
norms and is subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic elections
for the fourth time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This
is a question I ask myself all the time too. And here is my humble
answer: because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done,
because I still believe that change is possible, this time through the
ballot, and most importantly, because I still have the capacity and the
passion to dream and work for a Nigeria that will be respected again in
the comity of nations and that all Nigerians will be proud of.
